The 1% of Prediction Markets: How Liquidity Providers Dominate Polymarket
169
Profit on Polymarket is dominated by a tiny elite who succeed through liquidity provision rather than insider information.
Prediction Markets
Online platforms where participants trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events, used for forecasting political, economic, and geopolitical developments.
Reading List
Special Forces Soldier Arrested for Betting on Maduro Capture
689
A U.S. soldier was charged with insider trading for betting on the classified mission he helped execute to capture the Venezuelan president.
Nothing Ever Happens: A Polymarket 'No' Trading Bot
465
An automated Python bot for Polymarket that bets against the occurrence of events in non-sports markets.
White House Warns Staff Against Insider Betting on Prediction Markets
150
The White House is cracking down on potential insider trading by staff on prediction markets as lawmakers seek to ban betting on military conflicts.
The Moral Decay of the Betting Economy
901
The transformation of global events into gambling opportunities is destroying institutional trust and replacing human morality with cynical market efficiency.
Gamblers Threaten Journalist Over Missile Report to Rig $14M Bet
1595
A journalist faces death threats and doxing from gamblers attempting to force a rewrite of a war report to rig a $14 million prediction market.
Senators Introduce Bill to Ban Federal Officials from Prediction Markets
353
A new Senate bill aims to ban federal elected officials from trading in prediction markets to prevent insider trading and restore public trust.